HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
819 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
...IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD SOUTHEAST TEXAS AT 12 MPH...
.AT 700 PM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST OR ABOUT ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE THE WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.
DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT MAY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING THE COASTLINE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAD RISEN TO 954 MB OR 28.17 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
TIDE LEVELS WILL BEGIN RISING FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL EXCEED 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND ALONG THE SHORELINES OF THE BAYS BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY. WATER LEVELS WILL RISE RAPIDLY BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AS THE STORM SURGE MOVES IN WITH WATER LEVELS PEAKING FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK OF ONLY 15 MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCES OF SEVERAL FEET MORE OR LESS FROM SOME OF THESE VALUES.
MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:
GULF-FACING COASTLINE WEST OF SARGENT...5 TO 8 FEET
SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY...5 TO 8 FEET
GULF-FACING COASTLINE SARGENT TO HIGH ISLAND INCLUDING GALVESTON ISLAND......12 TO 16 FEET
SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY...15 TO 22 FEET
LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!
ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES... WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 11 PM.
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