000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210235
TCMEP2
HURRICANE IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
0300 UTC FRI SEP 21 2007
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVO.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 113.4W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 10SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 65SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 90SE 75SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 113.4W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 113.3W
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.7N 113.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 10SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 65SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.6N 113.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.3N 112.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 25.0N 111.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 26.5N 111.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 113.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
