Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Hurricane Time!

When these seasons finally crank up, things happen fast. We have a landfalling hurricane on the Big Island of Hawaii, a tropical feature of some sort in the Gulf, and a named storm getting stronger in the Atlantic.

Aircraft are investigating two of these.

Tomorrow's Tropical Cyclone Plan of the Day:


218
NOUS42 KNHC 141330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT TUE 14 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-083

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 15/1200,1500Z
B. NOAA2X 02EEA CYCLONE
C. 15/0930Z
D. 24.9N 94.9W
E. 15/1100Z TO 15/1530Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. REMARKS: ORIGINALLY AN AF MISSION FOR 15/0900Z.

FLIGHT TWO
A. 15/1800,16/0000Z
B. AFXXX 03EEA CYCLONE
C. 15/1530Z
D. 25.5N 95.6W
E. 15/1700Z TO 16/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: NEGATIVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO,
BUT BEGIN FIXING TD 04 AT 16/1800Z NEAR 13.5N 53.5W


II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURICANNE FLOSSIE
FLIGHT ONE
A. 15/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0609E FLOSSIE
C. 15/1600Z
D. 19.0N 158.9W
E. 15/1700Z TO 15/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP


Flossie:


000
WTHW80 PHFO 141821
HLSHFO
HIZ023>028-142145-

HURRICANE FLOSSIE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
820 AM HST TUE AUG 14 2007

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE BIG ISLAND
OF HAWAII...

...NEW INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE SECTION AND
THE FLOODING IMPACTS SECTION FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS
ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 800 AM HST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS NEAR LATITUDE
17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 154.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 190 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NORTHWEST AT 11 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. GIVEN THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FLOSSIE WILL PASS ABOUT 80
MILES SOUTH OF SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
COUNTY OF HAWAII CIVIL DEFENSE REPORTED THAT PUNALUU BEACH
PARK...SOUTH POINT...VACATIONLAND...WHITTINGTON BEACH PARK AND THE
MAUNA KEA ACCESS ROAD FROM THE 9000 FT ELEVATION HAVE BEEN CLOSED.
ALL SCHOOLS...INCLUDING THE UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII-HILO AND BOTH HAWAII
COMMUNITY COLLEGE CAMPUSES...AND ALL PUBLIC PARKS ON THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII WILL BE CLOSED ON TUESDAY.

IF YOU ARE ON THE BIG ISLAND...PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION EARLY THIS MORNING. STAY
TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL RADIO STATION FOR INFORMATION ON EVACUATIONS
AND OTHER PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
RECENT MEASUREMENTS FROM A BUOY LOCATED 185 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HILO SHOW OPEN OCEAN WAVES OF UP TO 18 FT HAVE BEEN GENERATED BY
HURRICANE FLOSSIE. AS THESE WAVES APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND...SURF OF 20 TO 25 FEET WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING AND DUE TO WAVE RUNUP. SUBSTANTIAL SHORELINE EROSION IS
ALSO LIKELY. ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE AREAS INCLUDE PUNALUU...
VACATIONLAND AND COASTAL PROPERTIES IN THE KAPOHO BEACH AREA.

SURF ALONG NORTHEAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL RISE TO 10
TO 15 FT TODAY...AND WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING AND SHORELINE
EROSION. AVOID ENTERING THE WATER AND STAY AWAY FROM
COASTAL AREAS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 40 TO 50
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH TO THE SOUTHERN BIG ISLAND AFTER NOON
TODAY. WINDS OF THESE INTENSITIES WILL CAUSE DAMAGE TO LIGHT
STRUCTURES AND TREES.

HOWEVER...IF THE TRACK OF FLOSSIE SHIFTS NORTHWARD...HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER COULD AFFECT SOME AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
BIG ISLAND...RESULTING IN MUCH GREATER DAMAGE POTENTIAL.

...FLOODING IMPACTS...
OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE BIG ISLAND THIS
MORNING...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10
INCHES OR GREATER IN THE KAU DISTRICT...AND 5 TO 10 INCHES IN THE
PUNA AND SOUTH HILO DISTRICTS THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE HEAVY RAINS MAY
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE KAU DISTRICT. A
PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE SPOT WILL BE HIGHWAY 11 NEAR MILE POST 58.
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN THIS AREA WILL RESULT IN CLOSURE OF THE
HIGHWAY FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 1145 AM HST OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY.

$$

KODAMA


Dean:


00
WTNT34 KNHC 142045
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM AST TUE AUG 14 2007

...DEAN MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1140
MILES...1830 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
ABOUT 1390 MILES...2235 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

DEAN IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...11.6 N...41.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB


Links:

(Also in this blog's right hand column)

TCPOD:
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/NOUS42.KNHC

NHC:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/